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Energy Time Series Forecasting

Energy Time Series Forecasting

Author: Lars Dannecker
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3658110392
Pages: 231
Year: 2015-08-06
Lars Dannecker developed a novel online forecasting process that significantly improves how forecasts are calculated. It increases forecasting efficiency and accuracy, as well as allowing the process to adapt to different situations and applications. Improving the forecasting efficiency is a key pre-requisite for ensuring stable electricity grids in the face of an increasing amount of renewable energy sources. It is also important to facilitate the move from static day ahead electricity trading towards more dynamic real-time marketplaces. The online forecasting process is realized by a number of approaches on the logical as well as on the physical layer that we introduce in the course of this book. Nominated for the Georg-Helm-Preis 2015 awarded by the Technische Universität Dresden.
Energy Time Series Forecasting

Energy Time Series Forecasting

Author: Lars Dannecker
Publisher: Springer Vieweg
ISBN: 3658110384
Pages: 231
Year: 2015-08-14
Lars Dannecker developed a novel online forecasting process that significantly improves how forecasts are calculated. It increases forecasting efficiency and accuracy, as well as allowing the process to adapt to different situations and applications. Improving the forecasting efficiency is a key pre-requisite for ensuring stable electricity grids in the face of an increasing amount of renewable energy sources. It is also important to facilitate the move from static day ahead electricity trading towards more dynamic real-time marketplaces. The online forecasting process is realized by a number of approaches on the logical as well as on the physical layer that we introduce in the course of this book. Nominated for the Georg-Helm-Preis 2015 awarded by the Technische Universität Dresden.
Renewable Energy Forecasting

Renewable Energy Forecasting

Author: Georges Kariniotakis
Publisher: Woodhead Publishing
ISBN: 0081005059
Pages: 386
Year: 2017-09-29
Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of renewable energy forecasting technology and its applications. After an introduction to the principles of meteorology and renewable energy generation, groups of chapters address forecasting models, very short-term forecasting, forecasting of extremes, and longer term forecasting. The final part of the book focuses on important applications of forecasting for power system management and in energy markets. Due to shrinking fossil fuel reserves and concerns about climate change, renewable energy holds an increasing share of the energy mix. Solar, wind, wave, and hydro energy are dependent on highly variable weather conditions, so their increased penetration will lead to strong fluctuations in the power injected into the electricity grid, which needs to be managed. Reliable, high quality forecasts of renewable power generation are therefore essential for the smooth integration of large amounts of solar, wind, wave, and hydropower into the grid as well as for the profitability and effectiveness of such renewable energy projects. Offers comprehensive coverage of wind, solar, wave, and hydropower forecasting in one convenient volume Addresses a topic that is growing in importance, given the increasing penetration of renewable energy in many countries Reviews state-of-the-science techniques for renewable energy forecasting Contains chapters on operational applications

Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems

Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems

Author: Mohamed E. El-Hawary
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118171349
Pages: 328
Year: 2017-07-12
A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial arenas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every maximization strategy. This book fills a gap in the literature on this increasingly important topic. Following an introductory chapter offering background information necessary for a full understanding of the forecasting issues covered, this book: Introduces advanced methods of time series forecasting, as well as neural networks Provides in-depth coverage of state-of-the-art power system load forecasting and electricity price forecasting Addresses river flow forecasting based on autonomous neural network models Deals with price forecasting in a competitive market Includes estimation of post-storm restoration times for electric power distribution systems Features contributions from world-renowned experts sharing their insights and expertise in a series of self-contained chapters Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is a valuable resource for practicing engineers, regulators, planners, and consultants working in or concerned with the electric power industry. It is also a must read for senior undergraduates, graduate students, and researchers involved in power system planning and operation.
Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment

Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment

Author: Jan Kleissl
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 012397772X
Pages: 462
Year: 2013-06-25
Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. Scrutiny from solar project developers and their financiers on the accuracy of long-term resource projections and grid operators’ concerns about variable short-term power generation have made the field of solar forecasting and resource assessment pivotally important. This volume provides an authoritative voice on the topic, incorporating contributions from an internationally recognized group of top authors from both industry and academia, focused on providing information from underlying scientific fundamentals to practical applications and emphasizing the latest technological developments driving this discipline forward. The only reference dedicated to forecasting and assessing solar resources enables a complete understanding of the state of the art from the world’s most renowned experts. Demonstrates how to derive reliable data on solar resource availability and variability at specific locations to support accurate prediction of solar plant performance and attendant financial analysis. Provides cutting-edge information on recent advances in solar forecasting through monitoring, satellite and ground remote sensing, and numerical weather prediction.
Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand

Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand

Author: Kevin Berk
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3658086696
Pages: 115
Year: 2015-01-20
The master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small and medium-sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business sectors. The model incorporates the grid load as an exogenous factor and seasonalities on a daily, weekly and yearly basis. It is demonstrated how the model can be used e.g. for estimating the risk of retail contracts. The uncertainty of electricity demand is an important risk factor for customers as well as for utilities and retailers. As a consequence, forecasting electricity load and its risk is now an integral component of the risk management for all market participants.
Time Series Analysis and Applications to Geophysical Systems

Time Series Analysis and Applications to Geophysical Systems

Author: David Brillinger, Enders Anthony Robinson, Frederic Paik Schoenberg
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1468493868
Pages: 260
Year: 2012-12-06
This IMA Volume in Mathematics and its Applications TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS TO GEOPHYSICAL SYSTEMS contains papers presented at a very successful workshop on the same title. The event which was held on November 12-15, 2001 was an integral part of the IMA 2001-2002 annual program on " Mathematics in the Geosciences. " We would like to thank David R. Brillinger (Department of Statistics, Uni versity of California, Berkeley), Enders Anthony Robinson (Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University), and Fred eric Paik Schoenberg (Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles) for their superb role as workshop organizers and editors of the proceedings. We are also grateful to Robert H. Shumway (Department of Statistics, University of California, Davis) for his help in organizing the four-day event. We take this opportunity to thank the National Science Foundation for its support of the IMA. Series Editors Douglas N. Arnold, Director of the IMA Fadil Santosa, Deputy Director of the IMA v PREFACE This volume contains a collection of papers that were presented dur ing the Workshop on Time Series Analysis and Applications to Geophysical Systems at the Institute for Mathematics and its Applications (IMA) at the University of Minnesota from November 12-15, 2001. This was part of the IMA Thematic Year on Mathematics in the Geosciences, and was the last in a series of four Workshops during the Fall Quarter dedicated to Dynamical Systems and Ergodic Theory.
Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices

Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices

Author: Rafal Weron
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470059990
Pages: 192
Year: 2007-01-30
This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Author: Ignacio Rojas, Héctor Pomares
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319287257
Pages: 384
Year: 2016-05-30
This volume presents selected peer-reviewed contributions from The International Work-Conference on Time Series, ITISE 2015, held in Granada, Spain, July 1-3, 2015. It discusses topics in time series analysis and forecasting, advanced methods and online learning in time series, high-dimensional and complex/big data time series as well as forecasting in real problems. The International Work-Conferences on Time Series (ITISE) provide a forum for scientists, engineers, educators and students to discuss the latest ideas and implementations in the foundations, theory, models and applications in the field of time series analysis and forecasting. It focuses on interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary research encompassing the disciplines of computer science, mathematics, statistics and econometrics.
Handbook of Power Systems II

Handbook of Power Systems II

Author: Steffen Rebennack, Panos M. Pardalos, Mario V. F. Pereira, Niko A. Iliadis
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642126863
Pages: 492
Year: 2010-08-26
Energy is one of the world`s most challenging problems, and power systems are an important aspect of energy related issues. This handbook contains state-of-the-art contributions on power systems modeling and optimization. The book is separated into two volumes with six sections, which cover the most important areas of energy systems. The first volume covers the topics operations planning and expansion planning while the second volume focuses on transmission and distribution modeling, forecasting in energy, energy auctions and markets, as well as risk management. The contributions are authored by recognized specialists in their fields and consist in either state-of-the-art reviews or examinations of state-of-the-art developments. The articles are not purely theoretical, but instead also discuss specific applications in power systems.
Advances in Time Series Forecasting: Volume 2

Advances in Time Series Forecasting: Volume 2

Author: Cagdas Hakan Aladag
Publisher: Bentham Science Publishers
ISBN: 1681085283
Pages: 195
Year: 2017-12-06
This volume is a valuable source of recent knowledge about advanced time series forecasting techniques such as artificial neural networks, fuzzy time series, or hybrid approaches. New forecasting frameworks are discussed and their application is demonstrated. The second volume of the series includes applications of some powerful forecasting approaches with a focus on fuzzy time series methods. Chapters integrate these methods with concepts such as neural networks, high order multivariate systems, deterministic trends, distance measurement and much more. The chapters are contributed by eminent scholars and serve to motivate and accelerate future progress while introducing new branches of time series forecasting. This book is a valuable resource for MSc and PhD students, academic personnel and researchers seeking updated and critically important information on the concepts of advanced time series forecasting and its applications.
Time-Series Forecasting

Time-Series Forecasting

Author: Chris Chatfield
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1420036203
Pages: 280
Year: 2000-10-25
From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space modelling to multivariate methods and including recent arrivals, such as GARCH models, neural networks, and cointegrated models. The author compares the more important methods in terms of their theoretical inter-relationships and their practical merits. He also considers two other general forecasting topics that have been somewhat neglected in the literature: the computation of prediction intervals and the effect of model uncertainty on forecast accuracy. Although the search for a "best" method continues, it is now well established that no single method will outperform all other methods in all situations-the context is crucial. Time-Series Forecasting provides an outstanding reference source for the more generally applicable methods particularly useful to researchers and practitioners in forecasting in the areas of economics, government, industry, and commerce.
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Author: Oliver Duncan Anderson
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319969447
Pages: 182
Year: 1975

Computational Intelligence in Time Series Forecasting

Computational Intelligence in Time Series Forecasting

Author: Ajoy K. Palit, Dobrivoje Popovic
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1846281849
Pages: 372
Year: 2006-01-27
Foresight in an engineering business can make the difference between success and failure, and can be vital to the effective control of industrial systems. The authors of this book harness the power of intelligent technologies individually and in combination.